What’s actually happening in your market, July 2026. Prepared for our clients and friends by O’Connor & Highland. Jay Highland, Principal · Powered by Keller Williams Boston Metro.
To learn more see the presentation by Dr. Mark Melnik, Ph.D., Director of Economic & Public Policy Research, UMass Donahue Institute, to O’Connor & Highland — June 24, 2026 embedded below.
The Headline: Six Things to Know
Here’s the big picture. Massachusetts remains one of the strongest economies in the country, and that strength is still showing up in home prices. After a few frantic years following the pandemic and ultra low interest rates, the market is settling into something calmer: buyers have more choices, and while homes are taking longer to sell, home prices remain stable and in some areas are appreciating. Too few new homes are built each year to keep pace with changing demographics, so that’s not likely to change anytime soon. Here’s what’s actually happening.
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- Massachusetts still has the strongest fundamentals in the country. Highest incomes in the U.S., an economy still outpacing the nation, and a $347B R&D sector that makes up 28% of the state’s economy. That strength is the demand engine behind everything else in this report.
- The market has entered its mature phase. The market is settling down, not slowing down. Days on market are up, and more homes are on the market than a year ago.
- Prices are holding. Prices are holding or climbing almost everywhere. Prices in most counties are flat to modestly up year over year, and Boston’s condo market is experiencing a nice rebound.
- We don’t build enough housing. Massachusetts ranks in the bottom 5 states nationally for new housing permits.
- Homes are selling near asking, less frequently over asking. Sale prices are still landing at 97 to 99% of asking price. But the days of ten offers and bidding wars above asking are happening less frequently.
- Buyers finally have some breathing room. Homes for sale are up in most counties, some for the first time in years. It’s not a buyer’s market yet, but buyers have real options again.
The Data: Boston, By the Numbers
Citywide condo sales, second quarter each year. Source: LINK MLS Quarterly Sales Summary, Q2 2026.
| Year | Sales | Avg Sell | Med Sell | Avg PSF | Med PSF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1,204 | $1,312,874 | $920,000 | $1,070 | $1,000 |
| 2023 | 788 | $1,328,389 | $925,000 | $1,100 | $1,004 |
| 2024 | 824 | $1,347,973 | $920,000 | $1,112 | $1,016 |
| 2025 | 802 | $1,309,044 | $932,000 | $1,087 | $997 |
| 2026 | 841 (+5%) | $1,440,571 (+10%) | $996,300 (+7%) | $1,144 (+5%) | $1,045 (+5%) |
Neighborhoods to watch, Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025
| Neighborhood | Sales | YoY | Median Sell | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtown* | 77 | +64% | $1,690,000 | +25% |
| Luxe Buildings | 159 | +31% | $2,050,000 | +15% |
| Waterfront | 44 | +29% | $1,240,000 | +12% |
| Charlestown | 84 | +17% | $953,250 | -9% |
| South Boston | 157 | +7% | $903,500 | +3% |
| Beacon Hill | 50 | +4% | $1,037,500 | -1% |
| South End | 132 | -5% | $1,172,500 | +7% |
| Back Bay | 102 | -7% | $1,527,500 | +6% |
| North End | 16 | -24% | $572,500 | -18% |
Downtown and the Luxe/Waterfront buildings pulled the citywide average up sharply, and that’s part of why the average sale price (+10%) outpaced the median (+7%). South End and Back Bay saw fewer transactions but held or gained on price, a classic low-inventory signal.
*LINK’s “Downtown” category covers roughly half of the area commonly referred to as downtown Boston, and reflects a small sample (77 sales); read as directional, not definitive.
More Data Points: Three Sources, One Story
We cross-checked the LINK MLS numbers against two more datasets: RPR’s broader Boston market view and the statewide MLS PIN report. They don’t always agree on the number, but together they tell a consistent story.
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- LINK MLS (Condos · Citywide Boston · Q2 2026): Median sold price $996,300 (+7% YoY), closed sales 841 (+5% YoY). The condo and luxury segment is running hot, with sales and prices both climbing.
- RPR / NAR (Single-Family + Condo · Boston · June 2026): Median sold price $1,097,000 (+14% MoM), months of inventory 6.42 (+9.9% YoY). A broader read across all property types. Prices are firm and homes sell at 98.6% of list in just 14 days, but inventory is loosening.
- MLS PIN (Single-Family Only · Suffolk County · Q1 2026): Median sold price $745,000 (-8.5% YoY), months supply 2.2. The lone soft number, but on very tight supply and 97.9% of asking price, this reads like thin volume, not a real cooldown.
Reading across all three: Boston’s condo and luxury market is unambiguously strong. The single-family slice of Suffolk County is quieter on price, but supply is still too tight (2.2 months) for that to be read as a buyer’s market. However you slice the data, this remains a seller-favorable, low-inventory market.
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The Suburbs & Beyond: Massachusetts Beyond Boston
Boston condos are only part of the picture. Here’s how single-family homes are moving across the four largest markets ringing and beyond the city: Middlesex, Norfolk and Essex counties, plus Worcester, the westward corridor Dr. Melnik flagged as a bright spot. Source: MLS PIN Marketwatch Report, Q1 2026 (single-family only, current as of April 14, 2026).
| County | Median Sold | YoY | Closed Sales | YoY | Months Supply | Days on Mkt. | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex | $850,000 | 0.0% | 1,195 | -2.0% | 1.6 | 49 | +23.9% |
| Norfolk | $775,000 | 0.0% | 598 | -14.4% | 1.7 | 50 | +16.6% |
| Essex | $720,000 | +2.9% | 605 | -8.2% | 1.4 | 47 | +18.5% |
| Worcester | $488,300 | +2.8% | 952 | -3.7% | 1.7 | 56 | +20.2% |
Every one of these counties is still under 2 months of supply, and all four are seeing days-on-market climb 17-24%. The same scarcity story driving Boston condo prices is playing out in the suburbs, just with more breathing room than a year ago. Worcester stands out: Dr. Melnik’s briefing cited it as a top-10 nationally ranked market by Realtor.com with 12.6% projected sale growth. It’s also the most affordable of the four by a wide margin, with a median price less than 60% of Middlesex’s.
Middlesex towns to watch, Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025
| Town | Median Sold | YoY | Closed Sales | Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord | $1,605,000 | -18.2% | 28 | 56 |
| Sudbury | $1,160,000 | +2.5% | 25 | 91 |
| Waltham | $902,500 | +12.8% | 16 | 93 |
| Woburn | $770,000 | +8.1% | 32 | 48 |
| Wakefield | $870,000 | +10.8% | 26 | 48 |
Town-level figures are ZIP-level samples (16-32 sales each) and can move more than the county total; read them as color, not precision.
The Backdrop: The Massachusetts Economy, In Brief
On June 24th, we hosted Dr. Mark Melnik, Ph.D., Director of Economic & Public Policy Research at the UMass Donahue Institute, for a briefing on the state of the Massachusetts economy. Here’s the short version.
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- $97K per capita income — #1 in the nation, 30% above the U.S. average
- 0.0% job growth — April 2025 – April 2026
- 4.7% unemployment rate — April 2026, above the U.S. rate
- $347B R&D economic impact — 28% of MA employment, 40% of all wages
- -2% projected labor force growth — 2025–2050, vs. +18% the prior 25 years
- Bottom 5 in housing permits per capita — among all U.S. states, 2025
Strengths
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- Highest incomes in the U.S., though concentrated in Greater Boston
- GDP outpacing the nation in 4 of the last 5 quarters
- #1 R&D employment concentration nationally
- 48.3% of residents hold a college degree, highest in the nation
Headwinds
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- Flat job growth since 2023, unemployment above the national rate
- Labor force shrinking since mid-2025 as immigration, the state’s primary growth engine, declines sharply
- Half of MA counties now record more deaths than births
- Bottom 5 nationally for housing permits; renters/owners equally cost-burdened as the national average
“The structural case for Massachusetts property remains compelling: highest incomes in the nation, dominant R&D and healthcare clusters, and a supply pipeline that chronically underbuilds relative to demand. Near-term, the Boston market benefits from all of this.”
Dr. Mark Melnik, Ph.D., UMass Donahue Institute
The Takeaway: What This Means for You
If you own, you’ve probably got more room to move than you think
If you bought anywhere in the last three to five years, you’re almost certainly sitting on more equity than your mortgage statement shows you. Go back further, to 2018, and it gets even more interesting. Boston condo prices are up roughly 15% since then on LINK’s own price index. But if you own a single-family home out in Middlesex, Norfolk, Essex, or Worcester County, the story is bigger: prices have roughly doubled in every one of those counties since 2018.* That’s not a typo. Add eight years of paying down principal on top of that, and a lot of you have built real wealth without necessarily realizing it.
What does that actually mean? Options. A bigger house. Buying before you sell. Helping a kid with a down payment. Or just having the room to make a move if life calls for it: a new baby, aging parents, a job that’s changed. If your family’s needs have shifted since you bought, chances are the math has shifted in your favor too.
*2018 figures are approximate, read from LINK’s Ten-Year Price Index (citywide) and MLS PIN’s historical median sales price charts by county, since the underlying data isn’t published as a table; treat these as directional, not exact.
Zooming Out: Stability, Not Speculation
It’s easy to read a year of shaky economic headlines and assume real estate has to follow. We don’t think it does, not here. The volatility is real, but so is what’s holding this market up.
The foundation hasn’t moved
Strip away this year’s noise and Boston still has the highest incomes in the country, the densest R&D and biotech cluster in America, and world-class hospitals and universities that aren’t going anywhere. The real risk (federal research funding, immigration policy, a softer job market) is happening around the edges. What actually built this economy is still standing.
The “silver tsunami” isn’t going to swamp us
You’ve probably heard the talk about a coming wave of homes hitting the market as boomers, who own about a third of all U.S. homes, eventually sell. NAHB looked into this in April, and the wave doesn’t land evenly: it hits hardest in slower-growth places like the Rust Belt. High-demand, tight-supply markets like ours are best positioned to absorb it, and many owners aren’t in a rush to sell anyway.
There’s more than one way in
We’re also seeing more parents gift down payments early instead of waiting to leave an inheritance, and more families buy together across generations to make the numbers work. Add in rate buydowns and multigenerational households, and there are more legitimate paths to owning right now than the sticker price suggests. None of it is one-size-fits-all, but we’re happy to talk through what might work for you.
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The O’Connor & Highland Team
Jay Highland, Principal · Powered by Keller Williams Boston Metro · 781.789.7569
Sources: LINK MLS Q2 2026 Sales Summary. RPR Boston Market Trends, June 2026. MLS PIN Marketwatch, Q1 2026 (Suffolk, Middlesex, Norfolk, Essex, Worcester). Dr. Mark Melnik, UMass Donahue Institute, June 24, 2026. NAHB “Silver Tsunami” report, April 2026. Federal Reserve SCF, 2022.